The demand for housing economy driven by the COVID-19 (new crown pneumonia) epidemic continues to ferment. Panel manufacturers estimate that the growth trend of NB will continue at least until the first half of 2021, and even after the vaccine is launched, it is expected to gradually become popular in the second half of the year. Regardless of the follow-up effects of the NB market, they believe that a new lifestyle has been formed, and the estimated demand will shift from the education market to the commercial sector. Under this circumstance, the major panel makers are quite aggressive towards their NB panel shipment targets in 2021.
In addition to the constant demand for NB, the current major applications of LCD panels are in short supply. In addition to the follow-up effects of the epidemic, structural changes in the panel industry are an important reason for the boom in panel demand at this stage.
Mainly after crazy expansion, the current total production capacity of LCD panels in China has exceeded 60% of the world’s proportion, becoming the world’s largest. In view of this, the Chinese government has gradually reduced subsidies to local panel makers, and it is expected that China’s subsequent increase in LCD panel production capacity will slow down. In addition, Korean companies are also withdrawing from the LCD market, taking measures to close factories or transfer production capacity to other uses, so that the overall panel production capacity expansion has become more moderate.
The supply of LCD panels will no longer increase significantly. AUO Chairman Peng Shuanglang believes that from a mid- to long-term perspective, the overall panel industry will return to a reasonable market mechanism, and competition will become healthier and more rational. Take 2021 as an example. , It is expected that panel supply and demand can be maintained in a stable state.
In fact, after the epidemic, people’s lifestyle, work and study, entertainment and transactions of daily necessities have all tended to be completed online, and the PC has become a necessary tool. In 2020, global NB shipments will not only exceed 200 million units for the first time, but the annual growth rate will also exceed 20%, setting a new high. AUO said that from the perspective of customer demand enthusiasm and unsatisfied orders, it is estimated that the demand for NB panels will continue to burn to at least the first half of 2021.
AUO is not only optimistic about the demand for NB, but also Innolux. Yang Zhuxiang, general manager of Innolux, said that the epidemic and 5G communications will accelerate the popularization of online education. In the future, online education will still be in the blue ocean market.
However, after the vaccine is administered and the post-epidemic era is coming, will it affect the demand for subsequent IT products? Yang Zhuxiang believes that the lifestyle may change due to the vaccine, but the demand will not disappear. It is estimated that it will be in the future It is a hybrid development of physical and virtual, and demand will shift from the education field to the business field.
For example, the main demand for IT currently comes from the Chromebook education market, but the aviation industry is expected to resume procurement in the future, so commercial applications will increase. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises can also be given priority when governments of various countries carry out relief programs. Purchasing ICT tools will accelerate the transformation of enterprises with the advent of network security requirements and 5G, and the demand for hardware products such as existing personal computers, NBs, and game consoles will increase.
In fact, because of the structural changes in the panel industry and optimism about the needs of the post-epidemic era, both AUO and Innolux have recently been betting on increasing capital expenditures. For AUO, capital expenditures in 2021 are mainly It is to prioritize the expansion of IT products, while Innolux recognizes that the epidemic has accelerated the popularization of online teaching and the potential market is still large. Therefore, the supply chain and production capacity will be adjusted from the second half of 2020 to increase the shipments of NB panels. Increased by 50%, it has now become the second largest in the world.
Because we are optimistic about the follow-up demand for NB panels, whether it is AUO or Innolux, the NB panel shipment target in 2021 will continue to grow. Omdia estimates that AUO will challenge 52 million NB panel shipments in 2021, an annual increase of 17%, while Innolux will challenge 50 million shipments, an annual increase of 11%.
As for Chinese companies, their ambitions to seize the NB panel market in 2021 are also quite active. It is estimated that the leader BOE’s NB panel shipments in 2021 will challenge 60 million units, an annual increase of 6%; TCL Huaxing’s NB panel shipment target is even higher. It is a multiple starting point. It is estimated that it will jump from 1.8 million in 2020 to 3.6 million. In terms of Huike, it will start from scratch and enter the NB panel market for the first time. It is estimated that the shipment target in 2021 will be Look at 400,000 pieces.
As for the Korean manufacturer LG Display, although it is exiting the LCD TV market, it continues to stick to the NB panel market. It is estimated that the shipment target in 2021 will challenge 36 million units, an annual increase of 3%; Sharp (Sharp) The NB panel shipment target in 2021 is estimated to be 10 million, which is about the same as in 2020.
Post time: Apr-07-2021